... do it right!
I have just read a report by the IDB (International Development Bank) on estimates of reparation costs for putting Haiti back together again. The headline figure is that it will cost $13.9 billion to rebuild homes, hospitals, schools, roads and other infrastructural elements. The question is, where did they get that figure from? Well, here's the warning, they did it by using regression analysis.
Using historical data and regression analysis can be fine but in this case I seem to see that historical data is probably not sufficient in the case of Haiti. Secondly, that $13.9 billion is at the top end of the confidence limits for just one of their estimates.
Here's the URL: read it and see if you agree with me ... you might not. Why not give me your comments? Happy to hear them.
http://idbdocs.iadb.org/wsdocs/getdocument.aspx?docnum=35072649
Duncan Williamson
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