Thursday, February 16, 2012

You WILL pay ... I WILL NOT!

Manchester Airport has been asking passengers to put a refundable one Pound coin in a slot to allow them to use their baggage trolleys for quite a while now. I have never used that "service" as I come home and quite often do not have such a coin with me. As I depart I found it very inconvenient to try to get rid of the trolley and get my Pound back: so I stopped doing it.

No great problem.

I just had a newsletter from Manchester Airport that tells me that from April this year there are going to be brand  new trolleys for us ... they are investing one million Pounds in them ... the Pound or two Euro coin will now be non refundable ... they will have GPS tracking in them!

They say

To continue making multi million pound investments in the airport when the cost of air fares are reducing, means that airports can't continue to provide services like trolleys for free. We know that charging for trolleys will not be a popular decision. This is why we are following the advice of consumer groups ...

Which consumer groups? No one asked me and I use the place more than most people!! Air fares are reducing are they: I'd like to see their evidence for that!

I will be independent of Manchester Airport's RyanAir style money making scheme.

Duncan Williamson

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Swings and Roundabouts

I checked into an hotel from one of my favourite chains and was immediately disappointed. The check in experience was dreadful. The towels are grey and old. There was just one bar of soap in the bathroom (and yes, there is a bath in there!). And a few other annoyances. I was going to rate them as poor: excellent hotel with three star service.

Then bit by bit the staff have changed my opinion: chamberpersons couldn't be better, the egg chef at breakfast is excellent, the breakfast waiting staff are very good. Finally, I just went for a sandwich and not only did I get a brilliant veggie sandwich but one of the waitresses came and made me an offer of a free cake! I accepted and when THEY came I was overwhelmed: the carrot cake was really very good. I could only eat three of the five they gave me ... all small, by the way!

Well done the staff at the Sheraton Deira Dubai

Duncan Williamson

Monday, February 6, 2012

Cost Accounting ... YES!

I got a fascinating message by email today that I want to share with you all. At the end of the message is my reply. See what you think!

Message TO me:


Dear, Mr. Williamson!

I have stumbled upon your homepage via Google search. The reason why I have done that is because I am working on the Thesis. It is dealing with the problem of maximizing the profit of a company X, within a concern Y.

The thing is that I work for a manufacturing company, that is a producer of a household products. And I would like to use Excel modelling to help our managers with a sensible peace of advice, about maximizing profits. The fact that we are part of a bigger concern and deal with only production puts some limitations e.g. our transfer price is fixed. We sell all of the finished goods to a distribution center (so we have only one client) and the profit would be everything we produce cheaper than a transfer price. The problem I see is that our cost price was calculated many years ago and it utilizes outdated principle, when naked price of labor and materials is increased with a fixed percentage of transportation costs, marketing costs etc. I find it very disturbing to read such a cost price, and definition of additional expenses with a fixed rate percentage might be misleading for the management.

The question is can you please advice some good reading? I might say that all of the articles (like "Linear Programming and Excel's Solver") that could be found on your website are quite good, but nothing new to me, as this was a part of financial class at the college I study in. Any book with some insights and tools how to make a company more profitable would be of a use!

The second question is that ok, if I build a model for a whole factory this would be nice, but it does not cut our costs. If I would come up with a proposal how to economy on let's say painting (use thinner paint job for the products, with same level of quality) would be more useful, but the model itself does no tell you where to "tighten the screw". One of the solutions would be to make economies on taxes. With our existing cost price calculation we make around ~12% profits of net sales. And we should pay a company income tax. If we can build a costprice that would lead us to a 3-5% profit, we would economy a huge amount in income tax, and we could decide to make profit in an other unit (we are a concern and might utilise our Hong Kong branch where CIT is very low). But this is the only opportunity I see for company X to maximize it's profit within concern Y. Maybe you can advice me something better?

Any information would be helpful. And I would like you to thank you for the presentation found on your website :Cost Model Building: a simple example" because it explains cost model building in plain words and makes it easy to understand. I might use your ideas for a presentation if I write a good thesis.

Best regards,
A M

Message FROM me:

Thanks for your very interesting message A.

What you have found is typical of the situation in many companies and probably all over the world.

The problem is the lazy accountant who cannot and does not understand where he is and what his company is doing. So it's good to hear that you want to break the mould.

As for reading, I think the best advice is for you to read and consider the differences between traditional cost accounting that you seem to be describing and the more modern alternatives such as activity based costing, time driven activity based costing and even things like the balanced scorecard and so on. I think you already know about these things but if you think carefully about how you can apply them in your own situation you will benefit a great deal.

Again I think you already appreciate that you NEED to understand all products and processes at your place of work before you can solve the problems you have outlined to me. Your biggest ally, by the way, is probably not in your accountant's office but in the factory. Your engineers, production management, stock controllers ... they are most likely the people who are of most benefit to you: learn what they know and it will be a good start for you.

As for saving costs, I would take a different approach: you MIGHT convince someone to thin down the paint, to find alternative suppliers, cheaper labour and so on but think this way. By generating a proper, more rational and scientific cost accounting system, you will demonstrate and reveal the reality of the situation your company is in. If you can then convince your management that what you have prepared really is valuable then they would be stupid to ignore your findings. Your new costs per unit and so on, your departmental cost schedules and all of the other value adding material you will be providing will be an eye opener for them that they cannot resist!

I have worked with people who think that cost accounting is nonsense: that is until I show them that I understand what they do and what they need; I then show them my product cost model and what it can do for them. Then they wake up! Very satisfying!

I hope you find that useful and would love to hear more about your products and services and where in the world you are!

Best wishes

Duncan Williamson

Monday, January 30, 2012

The Bankers Bone Us

Thanks to PK Munro for the inspiration for the title of this post!

The RBS, OUR bank, was ready to shell out millions of Pounds in bonuses in spite of the fact that they seem not to have been earned and were among the least popular things to have done in recent weeks.

These people took jobs whose aims must have been to build and rebuild the bank: their normal duties. These people took jobs KNOWING that the bank is essentially a public sector bank and public sector people do not normally earn private sector bonuses.

I heard this morning that the contracts of these people are in the public domain but I have to say that I have not looked for them and have not read them. However, I would have liked one or more journalists and/or politicians to have set out the terms in these people's contracts that have triggered the potential for the bonuses that had been announced.

The most important thing for everyone to appreciate is that we need these banks to be planning for LONG TERM stability and prosperity. So if there are bonuses paid in three or four years' time then no one will object I think.

Paying bonuses in shares, however, is a bad idea as share prices rise over time, on average: this means that even if the bankers do a poor job the shares they are awarded will be worth a lot more in a couple of years and they will be paid a bonus far in excess of the merit of their recipients!

More nonsense from the banking world

Duncan Williamson

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Managing and Interfering


Nick Edwards has written a very engaging autobiography that I recommend everyone to read. 

Edwards is a doctor in an A&E department at a General Hospital somewhere in the UK. The book discusses two main themes:

medical stories
management and interference stories

I enjoyed the book and reviewed it in full for my own web site: http://www.duncanwil.co.uk/book_reviews/edw.html

There are many business, management and even commercial lessons to learn in this book.

DW

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Happy New Year

Dear All,

There aren’t many of you because I don’t post to this blog anywhere near as much as I want to. My resolution this year is to post here at least once a week.

Happy new year to you all anyway.

Duncan

Happy New Year

Dear All,

There aren’t many of you because I don’t post to this blog wnywhere near as much as I want to. My resolution this year is to post here at least once a week.

Happy new year to you all anyway.

Duncan

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Don't Trust the Office of Budget Responsibility!

Don't trust them and here is why ... this is simulcast on Duncan's Diurnal Diatribe blog too


It was autumn budget statement time in the House of Commons the other day and the Chancellor of the Exchequer went on and on about how bad it's going to be be for you and me!

Cut a long story short: if you know the HOCKEY STICK EFFECT then what you are about to see will shock you. The OBR data that I have seen and on which the Chancellor's statement and financial policies are based contain many hockey stick effect examples: here are just two.



In case you think I made these two charts up for a joke or for a more nefarious reason, take a look at my excel master.co.uk blog post from earlier today where you will see more evidence and a link to the source of the data I have used: go here ... http://excel2007master.wordpress.com/ and look for the post entitled UK Government Spoke the Words, here is some Excel Analysis.

I think it's possibly shocking and potentially massively damaging for all of us.

DW



Sunday, September 5, 2010

Gulf Airlines: must read

I am a gold card holder on Emirates because my work and leisure travel normally take me further afield than Bradford and Birmingham.

As a result I like to see what is happening to Emirates from time to time and have just come across the following article as I was doing a bit of research into international expansion for a colleague.

Not only Emirates but Qatar Airways and Etihad are also going for broke in the world of civil aviation.

The figures are stunning, the competition livid: read the article and make up your own mind!

Here are a couple of diagrams from that article, too, to whet your appetite:

http://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/images-magazine/2010/23/bb/201023bbc564.gif

http://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/images-magazine/2010/23/bb/201023bbc569.gif

Find the article itself at http://www.economist.com/node/16271573?story_id=16271573, published on 3rd June 2010 by The Economist

Duncan Williamson

Friday, May 7, 2010

Cameron: no thanks

Looks like the Tories are doing what I predicted, gaining the most seats in the House of Commons.

Here's another prediction: this will be a failure government. The Tories' team is inexperienced and filled with oafs. All they have ever done is blether for a living. Probably clever lads but not good enough.

DW
Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device

Saturday, April 3, 2010

Try Doing Business Online at Holiday Time

This is a simulcast with Duncan's Diurnal Diatribe
Have you ever had a problem and tried to solve it online over a bank holiday weekend? For the last few bank holidays I have had something to try to resolve that surfaced just as the holiday had started or was about to start. Something different each time.
In all faith and with confidence you write to the support line, help line ... and explain everything. Then sudden death. Nothing happens. Nothing.
So this has happened again: I got an email on Thursday to tell me that the latest upgrade to some software that I want to upgrade has arrived. Yesterday, Good Friday, I tried to upgrade but for some reason it won't accept any of my email addresses as my registered address even though my copy is fully registered.
So I wrote yesterday morning to ask how to resolve this and pay for the upgrade. Death by silence.
If I complain about this or make a suggestion when they do reply, which effectively will be Wednesday because it's American software and I am more than a working day ahead of them, they will ignore it as a whinging Limey's rant!!
End of rant!
DW

Thursday, March 18, 2010

How NOT to dismiss someone

If you’re a moral coward and you have been advised to dismiss some people, this is how you will do it:

  • start a rumour that some people are to lose their jobs and refuse to confirm or deny it
  • when the time comes, send them an email
  • tell everyone who’s left that they MIGHT be next if they don’t behave

What’s the right way to do it? Be a man and interview everyone, the exit interview, to find out what they know and think about everything and to explain to them the why and wherefore of their dismissal. The exit interview is also a chance to offer help if they need it or ask for it.

Duncan Williamson

Friday, February 19, 2010

If you must Prepare a Forecast ...

... do it right!

I have just read a report by the IDB (International Development Bank) on estimates of reparation costs for putting Haiti back together again. The headline figure is that it will cost $13.9 billion to rebuild homes, hospitals, schools, roads and other infrastructural elements. The question is, where did they get that figure from? Well, here's the warning, they did it by using regression analysis.

Using historical data and regression analysis can be fine but in this case I seem to see that historical data is probably not sufficient in the case of Haiti. Secondly, that $13.9 billion is at the top end of the confidence limits for just one of their estimates.

Here's the URL: read it and see if you agree with me ... you might not. Why not give me your comments? Happy to hear them.

http://idbdocs.iadb.org/wsdocs/getdocument.aspx?docnum=35072649

Duncan Williamson

Friday, February 5, 2010

Bankers' Fees

There's a lot of talk about the bonuses that bankers are being paid these days. There's also a question that no one is asking, however, which is: where do these bonuses come from? After all, even if I pay, say, 5% or even 10% on my overdraft, it's going to take a lot of very big overdrafts to finance some of the bonus payments we keep hearing about.

At least part of the answer to the question of where these bonuses come from can be found in recent articles in The Financial Times newspaper:

  • Floating: but plain sailing cannot be guaranteed By Jennifer Hughes, Senior Markets Correspondent 2nd February 2010
  • The real deal: Why it still takes courage to go Dutch By Lina Saigol 2nd February 2010

In these articles we find that in 2009 the total equity raised worldwide amounted to $892.4 billion and in 2008 total equity raised worldwide amounted to $635.1 billion.

Moreover, we are told that the following are the rates that bankers charge their customers to take their company public.

Fees

%

USA

6.7%

Europe

3.2%

Asia

2.5%

The FT provides us with the regional breakdown of where all of this equity was raised and by making some assumptions as to which fee rates apply to which region, I have come up with the following analysis and estimates:

Equity Raised (from the FT)

$bn

2009

2008

North America

294.7

265.7

Europe

274.6

205.4

Northern Asia

115.8

30.8

SE Asia

21.8

14.1

Japan

62.7

15

Caribbean

0

1.2

Latin America

29.1

25.8

Africa

4.4

11.5

Middle East

4.6

13.4

Indian Subcontinent

22.1

14.1

Australasia

62.7

38.1

Total

892.5

635.1

Estimated Fees (my estimates)

$bn

2009

2008

North America

19.74

17.80

Europe

8.79

6.57

Northern Asia

2.90

0.77

SE Asia

0.55

0.35

Japan

1.57

0.38

Caribbean

0.00

0.08

Latin America

1.95

1.73

Africa

0.14

0.37

Middle East

0.15

0.43

Indian Subcontinent

0.55

0.35

Australasia

1.57

0.95

Total

37.90

29.78

There you are: in 2009 I have estimated that the total fees that banks have charged for helping companies to raise their equity by $892.4 billion amounts to $37.9 billion. Of course, the fees do not represent pure profit and they are not the only basis on which bonuses are calculated. However, you now have a better idea of where the bonus calculation begins.

Duncan Williamson

Thursday, February 4, 2010

US Double Standards

Remember when there was the US tyre company scandal, just a couple years ago. Goodyear was it? Everyone in the industry knew the problem and knew that many accidents had been caused by some rubbish tyres. There was a cover up initially and many denials.

Now Toyota has found a problem with the accelerator pedal on millions of its cars. Problem identified, solution worked one, repairs scheduled ... No expense spared.

Today I read that the US government has advised Toyota drivers in the USA to stop driving their cars and to demand a repair.

Well, that's one way to boost the image of your own companies: pour rubbish on the competition. Especially when the competition usually runs rings round you.

Very shabby.

Duncan Williamson
Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Read that Graph CAREFULLY

Everyone here knows that I find it difficult to respect a man who feels able to spend $1,600,000,000 on his own job interview expenses but even Obama needs some protection from the badly drawn graphs and charts. Even the Financial Times can get it wrong!

Here is a graph cut and pasted from yesterday's Financial Times:

obama_rate_wrong

How about the corrected version where the vertical axis is NOT chopped off just below the half way point ... no such a drastic change over the year is it?

obama_rate_better_mega

This post was also uploaded to Duncan's Diurnal Diatribe

DW

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Follow your own advice laddie

I wish I had!

Just before he set off on a monster trip of the Far East, my nephew asked me for some advice. He wanted to know the best strategy for foreign exchange for his trip: he asked about taking dollars, traveller's cheques and so on. I told him, whatever you do DO NOT get your currency here in the UK.

As I was leaving Dubai I checked the rates there as I had a little bit of foreign currency with me. Why oh why did I not follow my own advice? I ran out of time and opportunity to change my money in the end although I did change a little bet at Dubai International Airport. The rate there was a bit worse than I would have got in town but I changed it.

Anyway, when I got to the bank here at home I found their rate was £:$ of 1.74 ... in Dubai the rate at the time I SHOULD have changed my money was £:$ 1.61.

Just imagine I was changing $1,000 ... in Dubai I would have got £621, here in Halifax I would have got £575, a difference of £46.

Don't do what I do, do what I say! What a clot I am!!

DW

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Fantastic Communication of Numbers

Part of the way through reading the FT I came to a pointer that said, take a look at CEO pay in the oil and gas industry. The link that follows takes you to that page and it's excellent.

An apparently basic and simple chart but you can change the axes in real time, as they say. You can sort the order in which information is presented and clicking on a bubble in the chart will open up and page that flies in to give you a lot more information about the CEO you just click on!

Take a look at www.ft.com/ceo-pay and see what you think.

Duncan Williamson

Friday, December 18, 2009

The Financial Times REALLY Comes Alive

I have been a premium subscriber of the FT for quite a while now and have benefitted from online access, daily emails, an iPod FT Reader and so on ever since. Now, though, I can read a full facsimile version of the paper online every day.

Looks like a fantastic service.

Duncan Williamson

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Here's a Tip!

There is some excellent news for anyone connected with an industry where it is traditional to give someone a tip for services.

I only learned relatively recently that it was accepted that people in pubs, restaurants and hotels who receive tips can be paid less than the minimum wage with the difference being made up with the tips they receive.

The benefit of that system was that employers gained and any advantage gained by the employees was stolen from them.

Well, there is good news from 1st October 2009! This is from the UK Government web site, direct.gov.uk

Changes to the law on tips

It will now be illegal for businesses to bring staff pay up to minimum wage levels using tips.

Derek Simpson, Unite joint-general secretary, said:"The Code launched today will help consumers see where the money left for good service is going. Unite wants to see all employers sign up to the Code and ensure that their staff and customers can be confident that staff are treated fairly."

The code of practice will be monitored with a review in one year's time.

See http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Nl1/Newsroom/DG_181003

It is a disgrace that the previous situation was ever allowed to exist but now it has gone.

Duncan Williamson